autore/author: Leonardo Puleo
pubblicato/published: 16/03/2023
Citazione consigliata/Suggested citation: L. Puleo, What drives environmental preferences? Evaluating the importance of the ideological dimension for voters’ preferences on the environmental issue (www.lceonline.eu), 1/2023, II, p. 59 ss.
area disciplinare/disciplinary area: politica comparata e relazioni internazionali/comparative politics and international relations
parole chiave: atteggiamenti ambientali, opinione pubblica, ideologia politica
key words: environmental attitudes, public opinion, political ideology
Summary: 1. Introduction 2. Predicting preferences on the environmental issue: the impact of ideological, socio-demographic variables, and value-based features 2.1 Socio-demographic features 2.2 Ideological Features 2.3 Value-based features 2.4 Hypotheses 3. Data and Methods 4. The Evolution of the Environmental issue (2012-2021) 5. The determinants of the preferences on the environmental issues in Italy, France, and Germany 5.1 Socio-Demographic Models 5.2 Ideological Models 5.3 Value-based Models 5.4 Full Models 6. Conclusions
Abstract
Con il recente European Green Deal, l’UE ha introdotto l’ambizioso obiettivo di raggiungere la neutralità carbonica entro il 2050. La transizione ecologica implica costi sociali e richiede scelte difficili, che i politici potrebbero non essere interessati a perseguire se divergenti rispetto alle preferenze dei propri elettori. In questo quadro, la ricerca discute le principali ipotesi della letteratura riguardo le variabili principali in grado di influenzare le preferenze individuali sulla questione ambientale, testandole in tre paesi fondatori dell’UE nel 2019, anno in cui si registra il picco di attenzione dell’opinione pubblica sulla tematica ambientale. Utilizzando dati dell’Eurobarometro, l’articolo mostra l’aumento di salienza della tematica ambientale nell’ultimo decennio (2011-2021), comparando Italia, Fran-cia e Germania. Inoltre, utilizzando dati dello European Election Study 2019, l’articolo dimostra come le diverse preferenze sulla tematica ambientale risultino meglio spiegate dalla divisione ideologica destra-sinistra, piuttosto che dall’emersione di nuovi cleavage.
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The recent European Green Deal formulated an ambitious plan to transform the EU into a carbon-neutral space by 2050. Still, the ecological transition requires hard strategic choices, that politicians might not be interested to pursue depending on their voters hold different preferences as to environmental protection. Against this backdrop, the article tests the main expectations of the literature on the drivers of the environmental issue in three EU founding countries in 2019, a year of unprecedented salience of the environmental issue. Drawing from Eurobarometer data, the paper shows how much the attention on the environment is increased over the last decade (2011-2021), by comparing Italy, France, and Germany. Furthermore, the article explores, by employing 2019 European Election Study data, the article demonstrates how the current divisions in environmental preferences can be better explained by the ideological divisions on the classic left-right dimension, rather than the communitarian VS cosmopolitan divide.
